Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 0.009283 0.010467 0.011747 0.013235 0.014917 0.016761 0.018936
2026-01-18 0.007298 0.008901 0.010776 0.013136 0.016028 0.019465 0.023868
2026-01-25 0.006203 0.007987 0.010193 0.013125 0.016930 0.021714 0.028205
2026-02-01 0.005352 0.007201 0.009591 0.012915 0.017433 0.023381 0.031846
2026-02-08 0.004802 0.006713 0.009279 0.012990 0.018242 0.025443 0.036122
2026-02-15 0.004303 0.006221 0.008889 0.012883 0.018742 0.027071 0.039892
2026-02-22 0.004002 0.005969 0.008792 0.013156 0.019774 0.029500 0.044998
2026-03-01 0.003560 0.005462 0.008268 0.012737 0.019721 0.030301 0.047697
2026-03-08 0.003226 0.005080 0.007892 0.012492 0.019889 0.031418 0.050944
2026-03-15 0.002915 0.004705 0.007488 0.012158 0.019870 0.032216 0.053718
2026-03-22 0.002804 0.004635 0.007553 0.012574 0.021083 0.035068 0.060099
2026-03-29 0.002674 0.004522 0.007534 0.012843 0.022064 0.037605 0.066154
2026-04-05 0.002556 0.004423 0.007536 0.013155 0.023161 0.040452 0.073063
2026-04-12 0.002377 0.004202 0.007315 0.013062 0.023541 0.042089 0.077961
2026-04-19 0.002229 0.004024 0.007151 0.013051 0.024059 0.044000 0.083516
2026-04-26 0.002066 0.003803 0.006892 0.012842 0.024189 0.045205 0.087831
2026-05-03 0.001959 0.003677 0.006791 0.012917 0.024851 0.047443 0.094328
2026-05-10 0.001836 0.003510 0.006605 0.012810 0.025151 0.049006 0.099616
2026-05-17 0.001772 0.003452 0.006614 0.013082 0.026210 0.052122 0.108320
2026-05-24 0.001629 0.003227 0.006289 0.012665 0.025854 0.052393 0.111135
2026-05-31 0.001518 0.003059 0.006060 0.012422 0.025829 0.053322 0.115410
2026-06-07 0.001407 0.002881 0.005799 0.012090 0.025588 0.053782 0.118699
2026-06-14 0.001383 0.002878 0.005891 0.012503 0.026959 0.057738 0.130064